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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.