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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|