A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
